UPDATE: UBC economist says election result unlikely to shift after absentee ballots counted

Correction of BC Elections transcription error means neither NDP or BC Liberal likely to flip seats

This story has been updated to reflect the correction of a transcription error by BC Elections.

A UBC economist says there’s only a 10 per cent chance that absentee ballots and recounts turn a minority legislature into a BC Liberal majority.

Kevin Milligan used past changes between preliminary vote counts and final vote counts to calculate that there is a 62.4 per cent chance that the current result holds, with the BC Liberals winning 43 ridings, the NDP holding 41 and the Greens keeping three seats and the balance of power.

While the NDP only claimed the Courtenay-Comox riding by nine votes, Milligan found that – because absentee ballots tend to favour the NDP – it’s unlikely the riding will flip for the BC Liberals.

Milligan’s original analysis on Thursday suggested it was actually more likely that the riding of Coquitlam-Burke Mountain would flip from the BC Liberals to the NDP. But that was based on preliminary results that turned out to be incorrect. BC Elections said Friday morning that the gap in votes in that riding was actually larger than originally thought.

Milligan posted a series of tweets Thursday, then wrote a blog post summarizing his findings.


@ty_olsen
tolsen@abbynews.com

Just Posted

PHOTOS: CP holiday train stops in Nelson

On Tuesday the CP holiday train made its 19th annual stop in Nelson

Special citation for cultural icon

Stephanie Fischer is ‘a true friend’ of Nelson

Where are Nelson’s downtown Christmas lights?

People have been voicing their complaints to the Star about this, so we decided to look into it

Former Nelsonite stops attack on Muslim woman

Jake Taylor intervened in a violent incident on Skytrain

Site C dam decision ‘tough’ for Mungall

Michelle Mungall and the B.C. government gave the green light to the Peace River project.

Me Too At Work: Sexual assault and harassment in the B.C. workplace

Introducing an in-depth look at who is affected and what can be done

Nelson’s SEEDS to move from Lakeside Park

New gardening location will be at Seventh Street Park

Columnist, dance instructor honoured by city

A Nelson Star columnist and a creative dance leader receive awards

Grease auditions set for the Capitol

Black productions is bringing 50s musical to town.

Breakfast gives kids a big boost

Books, toys and cash donated

Poverty the featured topic at artistic event

Artists to perform at event organized by Nelson at its Best

Local fabric artist Kate Bridger opens exhibit at Nelson Public Library

Bridger will be exhibited at the Nelson Public Library until Dec. 31

More than 20,000 pounds of garbage removed from riverside homeless camps

Two camps taken down last week on the banks of the Fraser and Chilliwack rivers

Suspect in Revelstoke standoff killed himself: RCMP

Mohammadali Darabi, suspect in the Calgary homicide of his roommate, was stopped in Revelstoke

Most Read