Michelle Mungall is looking uncomfortable these days.
When the provincial candidates were first being announced, months ago, it was basically a foregone conclusion that the feisty incumbent MLA would waltz back into the legislature. In 2013 she took home more votes than both her opponents combined, and the Nelson-Creston riding has long been an NDP stronghold.
But in the past few weeks, things have changed.
While I was filming David Suzuki’s Lakeside rally on Sunday afternoon, where he was campaigning for Green candidate Kim Charlesworth among approximately 500 spectators, I couldn’t help but imagine what Mungall would’ve thought looking out at that sea of familiar faces packing into the Rotary shelter and lining up for by-donation hot dogs.
In the background was the Big Orange Bridge, but from where I was sitting all I could see was green.
“We need to stop being blackmailed by the NDP,” Suzuki told the crowd, referring to the vote-splitting controversy.
“We can’t bicker about pipelines and jobs and all of that stuff without first establishing what is the ground level basis.”
The ground level basis he’s talking about is environmental — he’s advocating for a government that acknowledges the routine climate catastrophes occurring worldwide and that’s committed to creating sustainable economies — and though he says the Greens and NDP both have superior platforms to the Liberals in this particular arena, Suzuki’s throwing his weight behind climate scientist Andrew Weaver because he believes the Greens are the only ones capable of crossing party lines to get things done.
But you can’t get things done if you don’t get elected, and as Liberal candidate Tanya Wall put it in our Wednesday issue, “numbers are numbers.” You won’t hear her bad-mouthing Charlesworth, who appears to be currently leeching Mungall’s much-needed votes from the left while she plays to her Creston-centric Liberal base. Right now nobody’s really talking about Wall, and that’s probably exactly how she likes it.
The thing is, Wall isn’t your typical Liberal candidate. She’s openly expressed criticism of Premier Christy Clark, admitted that rural hospitals and schools are being underfunded (as an RDCK politician, she should know) and even come out against ‘first past the post’ voting system championed by her leader. Like the other candidates, it’s hard to put her in an ideological box.
So what are the numbers?
Well, in 2013 Mungall received 8,200 votes while the Liberals’ Greg Garbula got 4,577 and Sjeng Derkx came third with 3,387. No matter what happens, chances are she’s going to take a tumble from the 54 per cent win she notched last time — which means this could be a legit three-way race for the first time in a long time.
One of the things that makes this election fascinating is that the candidates are playing different games. While independents Tom Prior and Jesse O’Leary seem determined to overturn the apple cart, and Wall and Mungall angle to get their leaders in power, the Greens are simply looking to increase their headcount in the legislature by targeting specific ridings, including ours. The first provincial Green was elected in the Gulf Islands, wouldn’t it make sense if the next one hailed from the Kootenays?
The thing is, it’s not Charlesworth herself that’s inspiring all this excitement — it’s her big-name backers, including former federal Liberal candidate Don Johnston and federal Green Party leader Elizabeth May. Though she has an impressive resume, she’s an underwhelming speaker and often seems to be reading from a party script. She’s less comfortable in the spotlight than Mungall, who is a political beast with eight years of practice.
But where’s Mungall’s backup?
All throughout this election season we’ve seen Christy Clark and John Horgan criss-crossing the province, but neither have set foot in Nelson-Creston and chances are they won’t before we go to the polls on Tuesday. While Mungall and Wall knock on doors and pose for selfies, Charlesworth is making headlines and earning endorsements, leaving people to wonder whether the NDP or Liberals at the provincial level even care about this riding.
Or do they still think it’s a foregone conclusion? Hard to tell.
No matter how it plays out, this election will be historic. It’s worth noting that when Mungall first ran in 2008, it was against three men — including a Conservative. This time around the only candidates of substance are female, and the Conservative party doesn’t even exist in this riding. Chances are the Greens and NDP will receive more than half the votes, demonstrating our lefty sensibilities, and if we successfully elect a Green it will make national news as a historic first.
And that would be the ultimate irony: what if John Horgan takes the big seat, giving Mungall her first chance at ditching her opposition role, but Charlesworth or Wall ends up being the one haranguing him during question period? It would fit with the Nelson ethos of default defiance, and continue the trend of us being the opposition, but it could also work to our detriment. With our affordable housing crisis, underfunded education system and burgeoning cannabis industry all demanding provincial government intervention, it’s crucial that we have an effective voice in the legislature, advocating for our needs. And regardless of party affiliation, any of these three women would fit the bill.
Now it’s time to choose which one.